Study on the 24Na specific activity induced by external neutron irradiation based on ICRP 110 computational phantoms.

The dose caused by external exposure to neutrons can be evaluated by measuring the induced 24Na activity due to interaction of 23Na in human body with neutrons. To investigate the difference between male and female in the 24Na activity, the MCNP code is used to simulate the ICRP 110 adult male and female reference computational phantoms irradiated by 252Cf neutrons. The results show that the average absorbed dose of whole body caused by per unit neutron fluence for the female phantom is (5.22 ± 0.06)% - (6.84 ± 0.05)% higher than that for the male phantom. The 24Na specific activity of male tissues/organs is higher than that of female, except muscle tissues, bone, colon, kidney, red marrow, spleen, gallbladder, rectum and gonads. The highest intensity of 24Na characteristic gamma rays on the body surface occurred at Z = 125 cm on the back for the male phantom, while the highest gamma ray fluence for the female phantom is at Z = 116 cm, both of which are aligned with liver. When 1 Gy of 252Cf neutrons irradiate the ICRP110 phantoms, (1.51-2.44) × 105 and (3.70-5.97) × 104 24Na characteristic gamma rays can be recorded in 10 min by 3-inch NaI(Tl) detector and Φ 5 × 3 cm3 HPGe detector, respectively.

Bioaccessibility of arsenic, lead, and cadmium in contaminated mining/smelting soils: Assessment, modeling, and application for soil environment criteria derivation.

Soil environment criteria (SEC) are commonly derived from the total concentration of pollutants in soils, resulting in overly stringent values. Herein, we examined the feasibility of deriving the SEC by using the bioaccessibility of pollutants. In this regard, soil samples from 33 locations at 12 mining/smelting sites in China were collected and examined in terms of soil properties, chemical fraction distributions, and bioaccessibilities of cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), and arsenic (As). The gastric (GP) and intestinal phases (IP) of the potentially hazardous trace elements (PHEs) were measured by in vitro assays, showing that these values varied from 11 % to 72 %, 1-79 %, and 2-27 % for Cd, Pb and As, respectively. Pearson analysis showed that the GP and IP bioaccessibilities of these PHEs were mainly influenced by soil pH, CEC, and clay fraction and positively correlated with the sequential extraction form. The random forest regression (RF) model showed excellent performance in predicting the gastric phase (GP) bioaccessibilities of Cd, Pb, and As, with a mean R2 and RMSE of 0.86 and 0.31, respectively. Both the measured and predicted bioaccessibilities were feasible to be used to derive SEC. This work will contribute to the development of regional soil environmental standards based on bioaccessibility for Cd-, Pb-, and As-contaminated mining/smelting soils.

Lateral approach is a more aesthetical option for radical resection of BSCC: assessment of its surgical, oncological, functional, and aesthetic outcomes.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to introduce a modified lateral approach for combined radical resection of buccal squamous cell carcinoma (BSCC) and evaluate its surgical, oncological, functional, and aesthetic outcomes in comparison with the conventional lower-lip splitting approach. METHODS: This single-center study retrospectively reviewed 80 patients with BSCC, of which 37 underwent the lateral approach and 43 underwent the conventional approach. Surgical, functional, oncological, and aesthetic evaluations, as well as follow-ups, were recorded and compared. RESULTS: Compared to the conventional approach group, the lateral approach group had a longer surgical time (P = 0.000), but there was no significant difference in other surgical and oncological parameters. Moreover, the scar in the head and neck had a significantly discreet appearance in the lateral approach group, whose satisfaction was better than those in the conventional approach group (P = 0.000). Other oral function parameters, postoperative mouth-opening, and 3-year survival rate were not significantly different between the two groups. CONCLUSION: The lateral approach could provide superior aesthetic results while maintaining equal surgical, functional, and oncological outcomes compared to the conventional approach for radical resection of BSCC.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of nivolumab plus ipilimumab plus two cycles of platinum-doublet chemotherapy versus platinum-doublet chemotherapy alone for first-line treatment of stage IV or recurrent non-small cell lung cancer in the United States.

AIM: This economic analysis evaluated the cost-effectiveness of nivolumab (NIVO) plus ipilimumab (IPI) plus two cycles of platinum-doublet chemotherapy (PDC) compared with four cycles of PDC as first-line treatment for patients with advanced NSCLC in the United States (US). METHODS: A partitioned survival model was constructed with three mutually exclusive health states: progression free, progressed disease, and death. The analysis was conducted from a US healthcare payer perspective, using a time horizon of 25 years. Costs and outcomes were discounted at 3% annually. Survival outcomes from CheckMate 9LA were extrapolated with longer follow-up data from CheckMate 227 Part 1 (NIVO + IPI) and validated against data from other relevant clinical trials and real-world registries. Health-related quality of life utility values were derived from EQ-5D-3L data collected in CheckMate 9LA. US-specific costs (2020 dollars) were used for disease management; drug acquisition, administration, and monitoring; end-of-life care; adverse events; and subsequent treatments. Model outcomes included life years (LYs) gained, quality-adjusted LYs (QALYs) gained, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for NIVO + IPI + PDC versus PDC. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were conducted. RESULTS: NIVO + IPI + PDC was associated with higher projected health benefits than PDC, including gains in LYs (3.71 vs 1.89) and QALYs (2.86 vs 1.37), and higher costs ($317,581 vs $119,909). The ICER was $132,960/QALY gained. NIVO + IPI + PDC had a 78-100% probability of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $150,000-$250,000/QALY. Sensitivity and scenario analyses indicated that the results were robust to changes in key parameters. LIMITATIONS: The inherent limitation in extrapolating clinical trial data was mitigated using data from the more mature CheckMate 227 Part 1 trial and validating the outcomes against data from other relevant trials and real-world registries. CONCLUSION: NIVO + IPI + PDC (two cycles) provides a new first-line treatment option for patients with advanced NSCLC that is cost-effective within a range considered acceptable in the US.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of nivolumab plus ipilimumab versus platinum-doublet chemotherapy for first-line treatment of stage IV or recurrent non-small cell lung cancer in the United States.

AIM: We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of nivolumab in combination with ipilimumab (NIVO + IPI) versus platinum-doublet chemotherapy (PDC) for the first-line treatment of stage IV or recurrent non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) from a third-party payer perspective in the United States (US). METHODS: A partitioned survival model was developed using efficacy, safety, and utility inputs derived from Part 1 of the phase 3 CheckMate 227 trial (NCT02477826) with 37.7-month minimum follow-up for overall survival (OS). OS and progression-free (PF) survival were extrapolated over a 20-year time-horizon using parametric spline-based models selected based on goodness of fit and validated with data from external sources. Duration of treatment Kaplan-Meier curves were used for treatment cost calculations. US-specific costs (2021 dollars) for drug acquisition, administration, and monitoring; disease management (PF and progressed disease health states); end-of-life care; adverse events; and subsequent treatments were derived from publicly available sources. Time-to-death utilities were applied in the base case, whereas treatment-specific progression-based utilities were tested in a scenario analysis. Main outcomes included incremental cost per life-year gained (LYG) and quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Model uncertainty was assessed through deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: NIVO + IPI resulted in 1.53 additional life-years, 1.33 additional QALYs, and $142 088 in additional costs compared with PDC. The incremental cost per LYG was $92 651, whereas incremental cost per QALY gained was $106 553. The application of treatment-specific progression-based utilities yielded an incremental cost per QALY gained of $117 076. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis revealed a 98% probability that NIVO + IPI was cost-effective versus PDC at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $150 000 per QALY. CONCLUSIONS: NIVO + IPI was estimated to be cost-effective as a first-line treatment for stage IV or recurrent NSCLC in the US, with increased survival and higher cost compared with PDC.

Cost-effectiveness of nivolumab monotherapy in the third-line treatment of small cell lung cancer.

AIMS: Present cost-effectiveness analysis of nivolumab monotherapy vs. commonly prescribed third-line (3 L+) treatment in small cell lung cancer (SCLC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: A three health states partitioned survival model (progression-free, progressed disease, and death; US payer perspective) was developed. The systematic literature review identified no randomized controlled or single-arm trials with separate outcomes for 3 L + SCLC patients. Topotecan was chosen as a comparator because it is frequently prescribed in real-world practice for 3 L SCLC. Clinical inputs for topotecan were derived from the Flatiron database with inclusion/exclusion criteria matched to patients treated with 3 L + nivolumab in CheckMate 032. Intravenous (IV) and oral topotecan clinical efficacy were assumed equivalent. Base-case analysis used a 20-year lifetime horizon. An annual discount rate of 3.0% for costs and outcomes was applied. Uncertainty was assessed using sensitivity analyses adjusted for key parameters. RESULTS: Incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained with nivolumab was US$153,312 vs. IV topotecan and US$123,003 vs. oral topotecan, respectively. When results were disaggregated, nivolumab-related costs were mainly driven by drug acquisition costs, and topotecan-related costs were primarily due to adverse event treatment. Mean overall survival (OS) was 21.69 months with nivolumab and 5.80 months with IV or oral topotecan. More favorable outcomes were found by the landmark response analyses. Deterministic sensitivity analyses showed that changes to the discount rate for costs and outcomes and body weight had the greatest impacts on results. LIMITATIONS: Included use of real-world data for OS outcomes associated with 3 L topotecan, use of second-line topotecan data for progression-free survival, and no indirect costs. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the literature on willingness-to-pay for a QALY in metastatic cancer, nivolumab monotherapy might represent a cost-effective option for 3 L + treatment of SCLC compared with IV and oral topotecan. Sensitivity analysis using response-based methods yielded further favorable cost-effectiveness estimates.

Non-Price-Related Determinants of Value and Access for Novel Non-small Cell Lung Cancer Treatments: A Cross-Country Review of HTA Decision Making.

INTRODUCTION: Access and funding for newly approved treatments for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) are often dependent on Health Technology Assessment (HTA) involving cost-effectiveness analysis. Whilst methods used by HTA agencies share many similarities, final decisions may differ. This may be the result, not just of price considerations, but also of variation in value judgements by different agencies. The aim of this study was to review international HTA evaluations to identify determinants of value and access for NSCLC treatments. METHODS: A targeted review and analysis was undertaken of published HTAs for NSCLC across HTA agencies in six countries (Australia, Canada, England, France, Ireland and Scotland). Analysis of extracted data consisted of three stages: descriptive analysis, bivariate analysis and multivariable analysis. RESULTS: The analysis included 163 HTAs that assessed oncological treatments for NSCLC from 2003 to 2019. The majority of HTA decisions (67.5%) were positive. However, some evidence of heterogeneity in HTA decisions and the factors informing them were identified. The most influential factors included in the multivariate model related to the HTA agency conducting the appraisal, the year of market authorisation, treatment type and the line of treatment. CONCLUSION: Heterogenous decision-making frameworks can present a challenge to developing HTA submissions. This research contributes to understanding decision-making factors and why countries make different decisions.

Measuring the Value Healthy Individuals Place on Generous Insurance Coverage of Severe Diseases: A Stated Preference Survey of Adults Diagnosed With and Without Lung Cancer.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the ex ante willingness to pay (WTP) of healthy individuals for generous insurance coverage of novel lung cancer treatments to the WTP for coverage of such treatment among individuals with lung cancer. METHODS: A survey was administered to 2 cohorts of US adults: (1) healthy individuals without cancer and (2) individuals diagnosed with lung cancer. A multiple random staircase survey design was used to elicit respondent WTP for coverage of novel lung cancer therapy associated with survival gains. RESULTS: Of the 84 937 healthy individuals invited, 300 completed the survey. Of the 36 249 in the lung cancer cohort invited, 250 completed the survey. Mean age by cohort was 50.0 (SD 14.6) and 48.4 (SD 16.8) years, and 55.2% and 47.2% were female, respectively. Respondents in the healthy and lung cancer cohorts were willing to pay $97.52 (95% confidence interval (CI) $89.89-$105.15) and $22 304 (95% CI $20 194-$24 414) per month, respectively, for coverage of a novel therapy providing 5-year survival of 15% versus standard-of-care therapy with a 5-year survival of 4%. After accounting for the likelihood that healthy individuals are diagnosed with lung cancer in the future, we estimated that 89.8% of the total value of new lung cancer treatments comes from the WTP healthy individuals place on generous insurance coverage. CONCLUSIONS: Total societal willingness to pay for lung cancer is much higher than conventionally thought, as most healthy individuals are risk-averse and highly value having lung cancer treatments available to them in the future.

Occurrence, bioaccumulation, fate, and risk assessment of novel brominated flame retardants (NBFRs) in aquatic environments - A critical review.

Novel brominated flame retardants (NBFRs), which have been developed as replacements for legacy flame retardants such as polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), are a class of alternative flame retardants with emerging and widespread applications. The ubiquitous occurrence of NBFRs in the aquatic environments and the potential adverse effects on aquatic organisms have initiated intense global concerns. The present article, therefore, identifies and analyzes the current state of knowledge on the occurrence, bioaccumulation, fates, and environmental and health risks of NBFRs in aquatic environments. The key findings from this review are that (1) the distribution of NBFRs are source-dependent in the global aquatic environments, and several NBFRs have been reported at higher concentrations than that of the legacy flame retardants; (2) high bioaccumulative properties have been found for all of the discussed NBFRs due to their strong hydrophobic characteristics and weak metabolic rates; (3) the limited information available suggests that NBFRs are resistant to biotic and abiotic degradation processes and that sorption to sludge and sediments are the main fate of NBFRs in the aquatic environments; (4) the results of ecological risk assessments have indicated the potential risks of NBFRs and have suggested that source areas are the most vulnerable environmental compartments. Knowledge gaps and perspectives for future research regarding the monitoring, toxicokinetics, transformation processes, and development of ecological risk assessments of NBFRs in aquatic environments are proposed.

A comparison of mixture cure fraction models to traditional parametric survival models in estimation of the cost-effectiveness of nivolumab for relapsed small cell lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: In August 2018, the US FDA granted accelerated approval for nivolumab in small cell lung cancer (SCLC) that has progressed after platinum-based chemotherapy and at least one other line of therapy. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of nivolumab vs. usual care as third-line (3 L) therapy for patients with recurrent SCLC (rSCLC) from the health payer perspective. Given the potential for a meaningful fraction of treated patients to achieve long-term response to nivolumab, we also assessed the impact of using mixture cure modeling (MCM) vs. parametric survival modeling on survival estimates and cost-effectiveness from the US Medicare payer perspective. METHODS: We created a partitioned survival decision model to assess the cost-effectiveness of 3 L nivolumab vs. usual care in rSCLC, based on observed US treatment patterns. Using this approach, we assessed the impact of extrapolating long-term survival from the CheckMate 032 trial, using both MCM and standard parametric curve fits. Nivolumab survival, resource use, and Grade 3/4 adverse event rates were derived from CheckMate 032. Usual care survival, resource use, and costs were derived from an analysis of patients receiving 3 L treatment for rSCLC in the SEER-Medicare registry. We applied 2020 Wholesale Acquisition Cost for drugs and 2020 CMS reimbursement for procedures. Utilities were derived from the literature. We estimated life years (LY), quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and costs over a lifetime horizon. RESULTS: MCM and parametric survival model extrapolations resulted in 0.43 versus 0.38 more LYs, 0.34 versus 0.30 more QALYs, and $69,308 versus $61,336 more expenditure for nivolumab vs. usual care, respectively. The costs per QALY gained using mixture cure versus parametric survival modeling were $204,386 and $207,431, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Mixture cure modeling was equivalent compared to parametric modeling in estimating the cost-effectiveness of nivolumab-based therapy due to the small fraction of patients achieving a long-term response with nivolumab (12.9%).

Economic Evaluation of Single versus Combination Immuno-Oncology Therapies: Application of a Novel Modelling Approach in Metastatic Melanoma.

BACKGROUND: Existing economic model frameworks may not adequately capture the atypical treatment response patterns in immuno-oncology (I-O) compared with conventional therapies and thus may fail to represent the full clinical value associated with disease dynamics and improved survival. OBJECTIVE: A cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of the I-O Regimen (nivolumab/ipilimumab) versus ipilimumab alone in advanced melanoma was carried out by applying a 5-state partitioned survival model (PSM) as a case study, to explore the I-O treatment response and clinical outcomes. The findings were compared with those of a conventional 3-state PSM. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The case study extends the conventional 3-state PSM, by separating the pre-progression state into non-responders and responders, and the post-progression state into normal and I-O progression to account for delayed treatment effects preceding clinical response. Model states were populated using patient-level data (where possible), mapping from the best overall response (BOR), and survival analysis with flexible and traditional parametric methods. Survival functions were applied to progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) endpoints across treatment arms using the 4-year follow-up data (data available at the time of the research; since then 5-year follow-up data have been published) from the CheckMate 067 trial. Information on BOR was used as a means of differentiating the I-O treatment response in addition to the outcomes of progression-free and progressed disease. A UK National Health Service and personal social services (NHS/PSS) perspective over a lifetime horizon was used with outcomes discounted at 3.5% annually. RESULTS: The 5-state PSM generated an increase in quality adjusted life years (QALYs) in both treatment arms and gave a more granular description of patients' health profiles compared with the traditional 3-state PSM. The incremental QALY increased by 13% (from 2.62 to 2.95 QALYs) and the incremental cost decreased by 12% (£29,125 to £25,678) with the 5-state model. In both models, the Regimen had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) relative to ipilimumab alone within the lower bound of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) reference range (£20,000 per QALY gained). CONCLUSION: A 5-state economic model, incorporating relevant I-O health states, can be more informative to gain insight into treatment response and progression differences that are not commonly captured in existing economic models. Clinical trial endpoints, including those relating to treatment response, which are not directly reported in ongoing I-O trials, can be mapped on to the proposed modelled health states (although assumptions are required to do so). Improvements in reporting treatment response in future I-O clinical trials could help to further validate and improve the proposed model framework.

Cohort versus patient level simulation for the economic evaluation of single versus combination immuno-oncology therapies in metastatic melanoma.

Background: Model structure, despite being a key source of uncertainty in economic evaluations, is often not treated as a priority for model development. In oncology, partitioned survival models (PSMs) and Markov models, both types of cohort model, are commonly used, but patient responses to newer immuno-oncology (I-O) agents suggest that more innovative model frameworks should be explored. Objective: A discussion of the theoretical pros and cons of cohort level vs patient level simulation (PLS) models provides the background for an illustrative comparison of I-O therapies, namely nivolumab/ipilimumab combination and ipilimumab alone using patient level data from the CheckMate 067 trial in metastatic melanoma. PSM, Markov, and PLS models were compared on the basis of coherence with short-term clinical trial endpoints and long-term cost per QALY outcomes reported. Methods: The PSM was based on Kaplan-Meier curves from CheckMate 067 with 3-year data on progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). The Markov model used time independent transition probabilities based on the average trajectory of PFS and OS over the trial period. The PLS model was developed based on baseline characteristics hypothesized to be associated with disease as well as significant mortality and disease progression risk factors identified through a proportional hazards model. Results: The short-term Markov model outputs matched the 1-3 year clinical trial results approximately as well as the PSMs for OS but not PFS. The fixed (average) cohort PLS results corresponded as well as the PSMs for OS in the combination therapy arm and PFS in the monotherapy arm. Over the lifetime horizon, the PLS produced an additional 5.95 quality adjusted life years (QALYs) associated with combination therapy relative to ipilimumab alone, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £6,474 per QALY, compared with £14,194 for the PSMs which gave an incremental benefit of between 2.2 and 2.4 QALYs. The Markov model was an outlier (∼ £49,000 per QALY in the base case). Conclusions: The 4- and 5-state versions of the PSM cohort model estimated in this study deviate from the standard 3-state approach to better capture I-O response patterns. Markov and PLS approaches, by modeling state transitions explicitly, could be more informative in understanding I-O immune response, the PLS particularly so by reflecting heterogeneity in treatment response. However, both require a number of assumptions to capture the immune response effectively. Better I-O representation with surrogate endpoints in future clinical trials could yield greater model validity across all models.

The Economic Burden of Small Cell Lung Cancer: A Systematic Review of the Literature.

BACKGROUND: Small cell lung cancer (SCLC), the most aggressive form of lung carcinoma, represents approximately 15% of all lung cancers; however, the economic and healthcare burden of SCLC is not well-defined. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to explore the impact of SCLC on healthcare costs through a systematic literature review (SLR). METHODS: Using the OVID search engine, the SLR was conducted in PubMed, MEDLINE In-Process, EMBASE, EconLIT and the National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED). Searches were limited to studies published between January 2005 and 24 February 2016, and excluded preclinical studies. Additional internet-based searches were conducted. In total, 229 abstracts were retrieved and systematically screened for eligibility, with 17 publications retained. RESULTS: The majority of publications provided data on limited and extensive disease of SCLC. The reported burden was categorised as direct costs and indirect costs, with the majority of the publications (n = 16) reporting on direct costs and one reporting on both direct and indirect costs. The only indirect costs reported for SCLC were lost productivity (premature mortality costs) and caregiver burden. Chemotherapy, diagnostic costs and treatment costs were identified as significant costs when managing SCLC patients, including the associated treatment costs such as hospitalisation, nurse visits, emergency room visits, follow-up appointments and outpatient care. CONCLUSIONS: SCLC and its treatment have a substantial impact on costs. The scarcity and heterogeneity of economic cost data negated meaningful cost comparison, highlighting the need for further research. Capturing the economic burden of SCLC may help patients and clinicians make informed treatment choices and improve SCLC management.

Modelling the Survival Outcomes of Immuno-Oncology Drugs in Economic Evaluations: A Systematic Approach to Data Analysis and Extrapolation.

BACKGROUND: New immuno-oncology (I-O) therapies that harness the immune system to fight cancer call for a re-examination of the traditional parametric techniques used to model survival from clinical trial data. More flexible approaches are needed to capture the characteristic I-O pattern of delayed treatment effects and, for a subset of patients, the plateau of long-term survival. OBJECTIVES: Using a systematic approach to data management and analysis, the study assessed the applicability of traditional and flexible approaches and, as a test case of flexible methods, investigated the suitability of restricted cubic splines (RCS) to model progression-free survival (PFS) in I-O therapy. METHODS: The goodness of fit of each survival function was tested on data from the CheckMate 067 trial of monotherapy versus combination therapy (nivolumab/ipilimumab) in metastatic melanoma using visual inspection and statistical tests. Extrapolations were validated using long-term data for ipilimumab. RESULTS: Modelled PFS estimates using traditional methods did not provide a good fit to the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) curve. RCS estimates fit the K-M curves well, particularly for the plateau phase. RCS with six knots provided the best overall fit, but RCS with one knot performed best at the plateau phase and was preferred on the grounds of parsimony. CONCLUSIONS: RCS models represent a valuable addition to the range of flexible approaches available to model survival when assessing the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of I-O therapy. A systematic approach to data analysis is recommended to compare the suitability of different approaches for different diseases and treatment regimens.

Estimating the cost-effectiveness of daclatasvir + sofosbuvir versus sofosbuvir + ribavirin for patients with genotype 3 hepatitis C virus.

BACKGROUND: As treatments for chronic hepatitis C are moving away from interferon-containing regimens, the most appropriate allocation of resources to higher cost, interferon-free, direct-acting antiviral (DAA) regimens needs to be assessed. Hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 3 is associated with faster disease progression and has fewer treatment options, historically, than other HCV genotypes. This analysis aims to estimate the comparative cost-effectiveness of two recently licenced interferon-free regimens for the treatment of HCV genotype 3. METHODS: Utilising a published Markov model and results of a matching-adjusted indirect comparison of recently published clinical trial data (ALLY-3 and VALENCE, respectively), 12 weeks of treatment with daclatasvir + sofosbuvir (DCV + SOF) was compared to 24 weeks of treatment with sofosbuvir + ribavirin (SOF + RBV). UK-specific model inputs were used to inform a cost-utility analysis of these regimens. RESULTS: In the base case analysis, DCV + SOF was found to be dominant over SOF + RBV in treatment-naïve patients, patients that had previously been treated, and patients that are intolerant to, or ineligible for, interferon-containing regimens. Given the low rates of treatment currently observed in the UK, DCV + SOF was also compared to no treatment in the interferon-ineligible/intolerant patients, and may be considered cost-effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £8817. CONCLUSIONS: When compared to 24 weeks of SOF + RBV, 12 weeks of treatment with DCV + SOF results in improved quality of life and reduced total costs, and therefore is likely to represent significant clinical and economic value as a treatment option for genotype 3 HCV infection.

Cost-effectiveness of combination daclatasvir-sofosbuvir for treatment of genotype 3 chronic hepatitis C infection in the United States.

BACKGROUND: A phase III trial evaluated the efficacy and safety of Daklinza (daclatasvir or DCV) in combination with sofosbuvir (SOF) for treatment of genotype (GT) 3 hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients. AIM: This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of DCV + SOF vs SOF in combination with ribavirin (RBV) over a 20-year time horizon from the perspective of a United States (US) payer. METHODS: A published Markov model was adapted to reflect US demographic characteristics, treatment patterns, costs of drug acquisition, monitoring, disease and adverse event management, and mortality risks. Clinical inputs came from the ALLY-3 and VALENCE trials. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-utility ratio. Life-years, incidence of complications, number of patients achieving sustained virological response (SVR), and the total cost per SVR were secondary outcomes. Costs (2014 USD) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were discounted at 3% per year. Deterministic, probabilistic, and scenario sensitivity analyses were conducted. RESULTS: DCV + SOF was associated with lower costs and better effectiveness than SOF + RBV in the base case and in almost all scenarios (i.e. treatment-experienced, non-cirrhotic, time horizons of 5, 10, and 80 years). DCV + SOF was less costly, but also slightly less effective than SOF + RBV in the cirrhotic and treatment-naïve population scenarios. Results were sensitive to variations in the probability of achieving SVR for both treatment arms. DCV + SOF costs less than $50,000 per QALY gained in 79% of all probabilistic iterations compared with SOF + RBV. CONCLUSION: DCV + SOF is a dominant option compared with SOF + RBV in the US for the overall GT 3 HCV patient population.

Value of Sustained Virologic Response in Patients with Hepatitis C as a Function of Time to Progression of End-Stage Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND: Targeted intervention in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) closest to end-stage liver disease (ESLD) progression may offer an approach to treatment prioritisation whilst delivering benefits for patients and the healthcare system. In contrast to previous HCV economic analyses, this study aimed to estimate the health economic value of sustained virologic response (SVR) stratified by the patient's propensity to progress to ESLD. METHODS: An HCV natural history model was adapted to estimate the value of avoiding ESLD complications following SVR, assessed as cost offsets and quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gains, as a function of time to ESLD at treatment initiation. These outcomes were used to estimate the financial value of achieving SVR, defined as the maximum investment that could be allocated without exceeding a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000/QALY. RESULTS: Regardless of time to ESLD onset, achieving SVR was beneficial, resulting in cost offsets and QALY gains, due to avoidance of ESLD complications. The value of achieving SVR was greatest in patients closest to ESLD onset, resulting in increased cost offsets and QALY gains (up to £50,901 and 9.56 QALYs). In patients closest to ESLD onset, the financial value of achieving SVR was £242,051, compared with £127,116 in patients furthest from onset. CONCLUSIONS: Standard cost-effectiveness evaluations may underestimate the value of treatment in HCV patients closest to ESLD development. Targeted intervention would promote efficient allocation of limited healthcare resources and reconcile concerns surrounding the affordability of new direct-acting antivirals, by minimising the number-needed-to-treat to maximise health benefit, whilst minimising healthcare expenditure.

Hepatitis C disease transmission and treatment uptake: impact on the cost-effectiveness of new direct-acting antiviral therapies.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment can reduce the incidence of future infections through removing opportunities for onward transmission. This benefit is not captured in conventional cost-effectiveness evaluations of treatment and is particularly relevant in patient groups with a high risk of transmission, such as those people who inject drugs (PWID), where the treatment rates have been historically low. This study aimed to quantify how reduced HCV transmission changes the cost-effectiveness of new direct-acting antiviral (DAA) regimens as a function of treatment uptake rates. METHODS: An established model of HCV disease transmission and progression was used to quantify the impact of treatment uptake (10-100%), within the PWID population, on the cost-effectiveness of a DAA regimen versus pre-DAA standard of care, conducted using daclatasvir plus sofosbuvir in the UK setting as an illustrative example. RESULTS: The consequences of reduced disease transmission due to treatment were associated with additional net monetary benefit of £24,304-£90,559 per patient treated at £20,000/QALY, when 10-100% of eligible patients receive treatment with 100% efficacy. Dependent on patient genotype, the cost-effectiveness of HCV treatment using daclatasvir plus sofosbuvir improved by 36-79% versus conventional analysis, at 10-100% treatment uptake in the PWID population. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated cost-effectiveness of HCV treatment was shown to improve as more patients are treated, suggesting that the value of DAA regimens to the NHS could be enhanced by improved treatment uptake rates among PWID. However, the challenge for the future will lie in achieving increased rates of treatment uptake, particularly in the PWID population.